It looks like Toshiba is giving up on HD DVD, making Blu-Ray the de facto high-definition DVD standard.

The format war, often compared to the Betamax-VHS battle in the 1980s, has confused consumers unsure of which DVD or player to buy. The HD DVD standard has suffered crippling blows in the last few months, though, losing out at Wal-Mart, Blockbuster, Netflix and other retailers as the movie industry settles on the competing format.

“We have entered the final stage of planning to make our exit from the next generation DVD business,” said a source at Toshiba, who asked not to be identified. An official announcement could come as early as next week.

Will Blu-Ray Matter?

The bigger question in our minds is not who will win the Blu-Ray – HD DVD format war, but whether either format will ultimately matter.

Apple, which tends to be on the leading edge of trends in computer hardware, has already begun to phase out DVDs in its hardware, focusing on the electronic delivery of video content and software:

• The MacBook Air shows what a computer looks like post-DVD;
• The Apple TV update shows how well movie rentals can work over the Internet;
• Apple is working to make iTunes digital copy the standard for digital distribution of media.

Blu-Ray is evolutionary, rather than revolutionary. It’s likely to become a widely accepted standard, like HD Floppies, that ultimately doesn’t matter very much. The leading edge has already moved on beyond DVDs.